Climate catastrophe – A Deadly Heatwave in China

For over 70 days from June through to August of this year, China suffered through one of the most extreme droughts in recorded history. From Shanghai to Lhasa in Tibet, China’s breadbasket has seen dangerously high, prolonged temperatures and a severe lack of rainfall that has led to the rivers running dry. For China, a country that relies on hydropower for 17% of its electric power generation, this drought has caused an additional challenge, with power restrictions put in place in Shanghai, along with many other cities across China.

The water and power shortages are forcing agricultural workers to take drastic action to try to protect their crops, and early evidence suggests that in many cases this is failing. The risk of massive crop failure would be devastating for China, already struggling with rising food prices, along with the rest of the world, due to global climate-related crop reductions, COVID-19, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The fact that Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, key crop-producing areas of the country, are in some of the worst-affected areas is a massive concern for the government, who have issued an alert to ensure water usage is minimised in agriculture to preserve as much as possible.

The Drought-Affected Areas of China. Source: South China Morning Post https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3190803/china-drought/index.html

 

The drought alone has caused devastation across China, but further disruptions are also worsening the climate catastrophe that is unfolding. Wildfires have ravaged parts of Sichuan and Chongqing and displaced an unknown number of people. The scale of destruction would suggest that there are thousands across the worst-affected areas, particularly in rural areas outside of major cities. As Chinese media focuses on the heroic stories of residents of suburbs of Chongqing fighting back fires from the edges of their towns, those in more rural areas have had less support. By the end of August, it appears that all fires in Beibei District, just north-west of Chongqing, have been extinguished. The long recovery process must now begin.

Wildfires in Beibei District, near to Chongqing, on 27th August 2022. Source: @Cao_Li_CHN on Twitter

 

Mercifully, rainfall has arrived in Chongqing and Sichuan. The rain was much needed not just to aid in the extinguishing of the wildfires, but also in order to bolster the dry Yangtze River, which serves over 450 million people. Interestingly, this rainfall does not appear to be a result of the natural end of the drought conditions over southern China. Rather, this rain was artificially created through the futuristic-sounding process of “weather modification”. Drones and rockets were used by government agencies to “seed” clouds with silver iodide, a compound with a similar structure to ice, which attracts water droplets to it and increases the chances of rain forming over the area in which the seeding takes place. Cloud seeding is far from a guarantee that rain will come, and requires specific climatic circumstances to be effective at all, but in this case it appears to have been effective and bringing an end to apocalyptically dry conditions that Sichuan and other provinces had been suffering.

This type of weather modification activity is likely something we will see much more of in coming years. The UAE has also engaged in cloud seeding activity in an attempt to break its own drought this year, and various scientific tests have been taking place over the US to explore the effectiveness of cloud seeding in different contexts. However, whilst such an activity may relieve some of the most extreme impacts of these heatwaves rocking the globe in 2022, it will not prevent droughts from happening. It also runs the risk of furthering harm by bringing excessive rainfall to areas just emerging from a drought. Heavy rainfall immediately following dry periods, when the ground is hard, dry, and less able to absorb moisture, regularly leads to flash flooding.

For the affected populations across southern China, the next steps after the extinguishing of the fires will be to try to build back what was lost. We do not have a clear sense yet of how many homes have been destroyed in the wildfires, or how many more may be damaged in post-drought flooding. It was reported on the 29^th of August, however, that over 100,000 people had been evacuated from areas at risk of flooding across southwest China due to the heavy rainfall. This, added to the undisclosed number of homes destroyed in the preceding wildfires, represents a huge number of homes in need of reconstruction and recovery across Sichuan and Chongqing.

In Sichuan, the Sichuan Red Cross has extensive experience in supporting flood-affected households, and have also adopted the QSAND framework as one tool amongst many that they can utilise in post-disaster response and recovery. I have been privileged to support in various ongoing projects in China that have used QSAND as part of their process to make sustainable and resilient choices in post-disaster shelter activities, most notably in support of a student group at Beijing Jiaotong University in their Solar Decathlon China Competition entry. As part of this project, another supporting organisation, the Chan Cheung Mun Chung Charitable Fund, took up the challenge of translating the QSAND manual into Chinese for ease of use by organisations involved in post-disaster recovery in the country. That version of the manual is now freely available for access.

The QSAND manual, available in Chinese from CCMCCF here https://www.ccmccf.org.hk/en/knowledge-2/qsand/

QSAND is a shelter and settlement sustainability tool that can help decision-makers to consider the long-term impact of their interventions, from the immediate response phase of a disaster through to long-term recovery. In the early days of displacement following a disaster like those we are witnessing unfold in China, access to shelter is a key priority for affected people. A good quality shelter can serve as a springboard for long-term recovery for affected communities, and so it is important to make the right decisions throughout the reconstruction process. QSAND can help with some of these decisions, and we hope that it can provide support as communities across China begin the process of returning and recovering after this crisis.

The recovery process will be long, but the heroism that has been shown in the immediate response to these wildfires by ordinary people, such as the volunteer motorcyclists who supported firefighters on the outskirts of Chongqing, demonstrates the capacity of affected communities to respond effectively. The use of cloud seeding as a way to break the drought is a novel solution to a problem that is likely to become much more common in the future. And the anticipatory evacuation of at-risk communities in the flood zones is an important method for limiting potential future harm to life.

Considering that this same extreme heatwave is likely responsible for the mass glacier melt in neighbouring Pakistan, and the resulting floods that have left around 30 million people affected, it is becoming very clear that the way that we anticipate, prepare for, and respond to climate conditions like these is becoming more important than ever before.

The climate crisis is here, and we should make sure we are learning from those on the frontlines, as well as providing support and help where we can.

We’re all in this together. We can only find a way out together too. 

 

It has been a privilege to work with the teams in China on the translation of the QSAND manual. If this, or the original English version, might be of use to you in your programmes, please do reach out and contact me. I would be happy to discuss how QSAND can be used and where the QSAND team can support projects anywhere in the world.  

Combating the Cost-of-Living Crisis in Tamil Nadu

The cost-of-living crisis is already having huge impacts for people across the UK. You undoubtedly will have noticed the cost of basics such as food, fuel, and other goods rising dramatically in recent weeks and months, and all projections suggest things are likely to get worse as we head into winter. There are various reasons for this cost-of-living increase, including the conflict in Ukraine, and a poor wheat harvest around the world due to widespread droughts. As a result, price increases are a global phenomenon.

Indeed, India has been particularly severely impacted by rocketing food prices. Here, spiralling costs of basic consumer goods have been compounded by the devastating drought that wracked the region earlier this year. Some 800 million Indians are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, and irregular monsoons and excessive heat have destroyed crops across the country. Even those who do not work in the agricultural sector are impacted by rising prices and reduced access to basic goods.

An recent Economist cover image drawing attention to the coming global food crisis. Credit: Ricardo Rey

In May, the BJP government announced an immediate ban on the export of wheat and onion seeds, in a bid to keep Indian goods in India, to combat price rises and relieve dwindling food supplies. However, by the end of June it was revealed that 1.8 million tonnes of wheat had been exported from India in just over a month since the supposed ban.  Collapsing global supply lines have led many countries to call for India to remove the ban, and some exceptions have been made on humanitarian grounds, but  this still means that food prices remain high across the country, and globally supplies are still dangerously low.

As the Ukraine crisis impacts the availability of food globally, Indian crops have also been devastated by droughts this year. The most recent extreme heatwave is the latest in a long line of climate-related crises facing India, with economists estimating that droughts have reduced the GDP of the country by up to 5% over the last 20 years. The devastating heat that ravaged India and Pakistan in April and May has reduced expected crop yields across the country by a minimum of 11 million tonnes. With a population of 1.4 billion now vulnerable to falling into food poverty, the impact of further disruption to the supply chain could be catastrophic.

India is accustomed to the need to adapt to climate-related threats. I have written previously about the fantastic grass-roots education work being done by The Kanji Project’s partners in Tamil Nadu to prepare young people to tackle the climate crisis as it plays out in southern India. Such work is vital, as local communities take control of their own response to shortages. At St Antony’s Matriculation School, staff use some of the land to cultivate rice which can both feed poor community members and be sold for a small income. Students learn through the Eco-Club about different crops and can practice caring for plants in the nursery garden on site. Local agriculture is key to building resilience into the food supply system, but breaking free of our global export-driven farming system is a long-term goal, and in the immediate context of this cost-of-living crisis, short-term support is needed.

Both SAF and the Rose Sisters have been supporting community members who have been disproportionately impacted by rising prices. Many of those in poverty around Kanji have already been dramatically affected by the COVID pandemic and resulting economic downturn, only to then find themselves at the sharp end of the rapidly increasing costs of food, fuel, and consumer goods. The Rose Sisters have been acting to support the most vulnerable in their communities for a long time, helping to establish 45 self-help groups for women and disabled adults, and facilitating access to government funding mechanisms for those unable to apply on their own.

Some of the food provision activity SAF were able to engage in in response to the joint COVID / flood emergencies in Spring this year.

But the cost-of-living crisis is also impacting those that work at St Antony’s and with the Rose Sisters. These staff members were provided half-pay over the time when operations were halted due to COVID lockdowns and are all now back on full-pay as work scales back up after the long slow down across the state. However, price hikes are impacting everyone, and wages do not stretch as far as before. The management at both SAF and the Rose Sisters are working to find ways to alleviate the cost of rising prices in their staff and members.

Bus drivers at St Antony’s recently received a pay rise in recognition of the vital role they play in getting children from different villages to school every day. Now, the school is looking to raise the salaries for all staff, including teachers, ayahs, and administrators. This is tempered by the need to also provide concessions for some students who pay privately for their education, which is a source of income for the school. As their families have also seen their income reduced in real terms over the pandemic, students are also increasingly finding it difficult to stay in school. The Kanji Project aims to support the most vulnerable students through our sponsorship programme, but the cost-of-living crisis has resulted in many more children in ever-more precarious situations.

Despite this, the school continues to provide support to not just its own students, but to all members of the community who need help. In the immediate aftermath of the floods that wracked Tamil Nadu late last year, St Antony’s opened its doors to 50 families who were displaced. Now, with the generous support of Kanji Project supporters, we have been able to provide funding support for the reconstruction of three homes that were destroyed by the rain. St Antony’s continues to provide food to in-need people in surrounding villages, and the school’s planting programme is resuming as students return to school, with the aim of planting trees and plants around Kanji to provide better flood defences moving forward and also to support small-scale agriculture.

Other groups supported with basic supplies by the Rose Sisters

The Rose Sisters are working flat out with their community self-support groups. They have also been able to welcome students back to the Sunshine Special School, which is back working at full capacity after the COVID lockdowns. Throughout the pandemic, the Sisters were able to support well over 600 households in need to financial and dietary support. Although the children’s parliaments were halted over COVID, these will also hopefully start up again soon and continue their aims of empowering children to make real change in their own communities. Their staff are also feeling the crunch, and the Rose Sisters are looking for additional funding support to be able to raise their wages. We at The Kanji Project are exploring how we can best support this endeavour. 

All of our amazing partners are continuing to do this work with the limited resources they have available to them, and are having a massive impact in their neighbourhoods.

You can keep up-to-date on their activities in Kanji via our website.

Like the rest of the world, India is facing a cost-of-living crisis. As material conditions worsen, there is a real risk of political division and conflict across the country. However, ordinary people continue to work hard to support the most vulnerable members of their communities, and in doing so provide a great hope for the future.

As always, I am constantly blown away by the tenacity with which SAF and the Rose Sisters tackle the issues they see around them. Though their work is getting harder as the cost of supporting the poorest members of their community rises, they continue to adapt and to navigate their way to meeting the needs of those they can reach.

The cost-of-living crisis is impacting all of us, but the solidarity shown by people working in their own communities can be a learning opportunity for those of us here in the UK. As we move towards a winter of energy price increases that could prove devastating for the poorest in our communities, we should look to those already doing empowering work in other parts of the world. I have learned so much from what I've seen and heard of our partners in India. 

It may be small in scale, but it is massive in impact. 

If you would like to support The Kanji Project as we continue to look for ways to help SAF and the Rose Sisters do their vital work, please consider getting involved, setting up a donation, or sponsoring a child through our website. 

Democratising the Right to Violence? – A 3D-Printed Revolution

On the 1^st February 2021, Myanmar’s armed forces, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected civilian government in a coup. Almost immediately, ordinary citizens of Myanmar took to the streets to protest the move. The history of Myanmar is a bloody one, dominated by the military in a series of dictatorial regimes. This appeared to be coming to an end in 2015 following resistance leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s rise to de-facto leader of the country through democratic elections. However, national and international excitement at the emergence of such a peace icon in real power in the country was quickly quashed, as Suu Kyi oversaw the Tatmadaw’s brutal repression and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya in Rakhine state, before succumbing to the will of the real dominant powers in the country.

Despite international disillusionment with Suu Kyi’s government, however, nobody domestically or abroad wanted to see the return of the brutal military regime to power in Myanmar. When protestors took to the streets in response to the coup, they came armed with signs, slogans, and the support of the international community. Such assets provided little protection when the Tatmadaw met them with guns. On February 20^th, just a few short weeks after the coup, two unarmed protestors were gunned down by security forces. In response, thousands more took to the streets. By the 31^st March 2021, more than 520 civilian protestors had been killed, and thousands had been arrested. Journalists were targeted, freedom of speech was curtailed, and the body count kept rising.

Max Weber on the legitimate use of violence - “Politics as a Vocation” (1918)

The state is often seen as a governing body that has the monopoly on the use of violence in a country. In liberal democracies, this is (problematically) framed as meaning only the state has the right to wield violence in order to protect its citizens against outside aggressors (through the military) or dangerous people within its borders (via policing). However, in illiberal autocracies and dictatorships, this means that the state wields its force in order to subjugate and control its population. As has been demonstrated throughout history, in establishing their monopoly on the use of violence, dictators can sometimes end up ruling only over the debris that remains of what was once a nation. To them, this does not appear to matter, providing the state’s capacity to use force as it pleases has been firmly restored.

In Myanmar, it doesn’t matter whether the people wanted Tatmadaw Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing as their leader or not, because Min Aung Hlaing holds the biggest guns. As we have unfortunately seen in Syria, the capacity of Bashar al-Assad to effectively utilise overwhelming violence against his citizens has allowed him to continue his rule. Now, in Ukraine, western governments struggle to decide how best to provide weapons to Zelenskyy and his militias, for fear of drawing NATO into conflict with Russia. Though the fears of nuclear escalation are no-doubt warranted, and many international experts are rightly extremely concerned about the risks associated with establishing a NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine, the calls from Ukrainians desperately trying to defend their homes from vastly superior firepower are getting harder to bear.

But modern technology is changing this dynamic. As has been expertly described in the four-part podcast series of It Could Happen Here: Printing the Revolution, tech-savvy protestors in Myanmar have found new ways to arm themselves in opposition to the military junta. 3D printed guns can be as effective as more traditional weapons, especially given the open access nature of weapons blueprints. Many young protestors-turned-revolutionaries in Myanmar have been using Reddit and other social media sites to access gun blueprints, and this has changed the capacity of various militia groups across the country to respond to the military crackdown.

A militia fighter in Myanmar holding a 3D printed gun

Since the early massacres of the Tatmadaw in the spring of 2021, an effective resistance movement has emerged across Myanmar. A national unity government has been established in opposition to the junta, and the NUG has led on the creation of a “People’s Defence Force” made up of resistance movements across ethnic and religious lines, in a show of solidarity not seen previously in the country. Even the Rohingya minority have been included in the alliance against Min Aung Hlaing. Such a unifying force is able to put up a real challenge to the would-be oppressors of Burmese civil society, but without access the weaponry to defend themselves, any opposition would have undoubtedly been quashed before they were able to organise. Rebel fighters credit the 3D printed guns with giving them a chance at surviving long enough to plan their actions against the government.

The ability to print guns obviously raises many very serious issues, most notably in countries with strict gun control laws. The history of 3D printed guns is also filled with very dangerous individuals and has been in many cases advocated for by violent, terrorist organisations, particularly on the far right. The capacity for states to regulate this is also legally murky. But in Myanmar, it has allowed ordinary citizens to defend themselves against a brutal regime. In the US, the 2^nd amendment was intended as a way for citizens to defend themselves against tyranny, and in the modern world 3D printing is demonstrating the necessity of those protections.

More 3D printed guns being constructed in Myanmar. Source: Jake Hanrahan on Twitter @Jake_Hanrahan

Despite this, a world where anyone could have access to lethal weaponry is not one that I think many of us would want to live in. Regulation is vital, but access to high quality guns that can be easily produced could give communities the capacity to protect themselves from external threats. As Ukraine finds itself increasingly cut off from its western allies, and the delivery of weapons and aid becomes harder, one wonders if 3D printing weapons and ammunitions might be a route to strengthen the defensive capacity of the beleaguered country.

The issues raised by this cutting-edge technology are extremely complicated, and I’m not sure what the future should be. For now, I’ll say that I value the capacity of oppressed communities in Myanmar and elsewhere to defend themselves from dictatorial regimes.

Easy access weaponry can be incredibly useful for allowing civilians of undemocratic, oppressive states to protect themselves. It reduces the need for so-called “lethal aid” initiatives by allies in the international community, skirting geopolitical barriers and helping to democratise access to protective mechanisms. In peaceful countries, access to such technology should be restricted to prevent unnecessary harm, but in times of civil strife, the use of the internet to gain blueprints for self-defence equipment can make a tangible difference on the battlefield. It can make the difference between a clash of forces and an unmitigated massacre.

However, such technology should be utilised with extreme caution. The long-term solution for durable peace is never reached through more weapons. Technology cannot end a war. Only humans can do that.

The issue of 3D printed guns is one that I find difficult to know exactly how I feel about. By nature, I am pro gun control and the limiting of access to weapons, but this is a very European, western world view based on the experience of gun control in the UK following the Dunblane massacre, and the continued horrors of mass killings in the US. For a deep dive into the issues around 3D printed weapons, I'd recommend Myanmar: Printing the Revolution from It Could Happen Here.

On the Brink? - The Risk of Identity-Based Violence in Modi's India

A recent event hosted by Genocide Watch, “India on the Brink”,  had a stark warning for civil society and the international community focused on India. Held on the 20th anniversary of the horrific communal riots in Gujarat that killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands of Indian Muslims, its aim was “to commemorate, share, and look ahead” at the current state of religious and ethnic relations in India.  

Unfortunately, the current outlook in India is not bright. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has long relied on a far-right Hindu Nationalist platform to consolidate power, and recent violence in Kashmir, as well as the stripping of rights of Muslim minorities in states across the country has emboldened some groups of Hindu nationalists to begin attacking Muslim holy sites and even people. As Modi’s government consolidates its strength and drifts towards autocracy, India, as the name of Genocide Watch’s workshops suggest, drifts towards the brink of catastrophic identity-based violence.

A mosque that was set on fire in the Indian capital in February 2020 by Hindu mobs [Sajjad Hussain/AFP]

The targeting of Muslims in India has drawn parallels to the brutal ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya in Myanmar, and global organisations are extremely worried about how this trend might continue. There have already been several shocking examples of violence against Muslim groups, and hate speech is rampant. Much of this aggression is couched as Hindu pride, but Modi’s BJP political party have built a movement around the concept of “Hindutva”, a Hindu nationalism that has, in some circles, been weaponised as an anti-minority ideology. Modi has consistently presented his approach as “Hindus first”, and this means all minority groups are feeling threatened by the rising focus on ethnic and religious nationalism across India.

Indeed, this nationalist violence is not only aimed at Muslims. Christian schools have been attacked by mobs, and in 2019 I visited Tamil Nadu in my capacity as trustee of The Kanji Project, where I heard first hand of the difficulties that our partners, St Antony’s Foundlings and the Franciscan Sisters in Pudupalayam, had in navigating government schemes and accessing resources, in part due to their minority status. St Antony’s in particular found itself categorised as a Christian organisation that was therefore ineligible for certain government services, despite the fact that the majority of its staff and students are Hindu, and SAF remains focused on providing support to all those in need, regardless of caste, creed, gender, or religious affiliation.

What we are seeing happen in India is the erosion of the democratic rights that have made the country so great. We are seeing populist, nationalistic leaders exploit intergroup tensions for their own gain, stoking ethnic divisions to reinforce their own power. Narendra Modi’s actions are not unique. He is following the playbook of autocratic leaders the world over, most notably his friend and ally Vladimir Putin, who has benefitted from continued support from India even as he becomes increasingly isolated from the rest of the world following the criminal invasion of Ukraine.

India is one of the most diverse countries on Earth

Perhaps most telling is to revisit the Gujarati riots in 2002, ugly clashes that targeted Muslim minority groups and that were, according to many scholars, deliberately provoked by the BJP and Gujarat’s then-Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. In the aftermath of the massacre of thousands of Muslims in Gujarat, Modi was unapologetic, expressing his approval with his own handling of the situation. He was subjected to a visa-ban in the US due to his role in provoking the violence, but this was later rescinded as he rose to prominence in national politics and became Prime Minister in 2014. The man deemed too dangerous to be allowed access to the US took the leadership of the world’s largest democracy. In his hands, India stepped closer to the brink.

But India is a much larger, much brighter, and more diverse, place than Modi’s BJP would have you believe.

At the 25^th Anniversary celebrations of St Antony’s in 2019, the occasion was marked by a prayer service with representatives from Christian, Hindu, and Muslim congregations. SAF and the Rose Sisters both serve as an example of the multicultural reality of life in India. The rise in hateful rhetoric across the country is a great concern to us at The Kanji Project, but we remain hopeful when we see the reality of different groups coming together across Kanji and the surrounding villages to support each other through daily challenges as a community, and as friends. Hateful minds might have the loudest platform, but ordinary life in India remains vibrant, diverse, and full of inspiration. Ordinary people help each other, and work together to support those most vulnerable, as we have seen first-hand in supporting our partners' COVID response, as well their aid delivery in the aftermath of severe flooding in November of last year.

25th Anniversary Celebrations at St Antony's - 2019.

It is vital that organisations like the organisers of India on the Brink sound the alarm whenever the risk of identity-based violence rears its ugly head, but we should also shine a light on the incredible work of ordinary community-based groups, not just in India, but around the world, who tackle hateful rhetoric with kindness and who overcome harmful stereotypes with love and compassion.

Things are not as dark as Modi and his ilk want to portray them. We are more than our religious affiliation, our caste, our ethnicity, our gender, or anything else that those in power may try to use to divide us. At The Kanji Project we are constantly reminded of the power a small group of people who want to help can have to change lives. Ordinary people suffer the most when hateful rhetoric gains traction, but ordinary people also hold the power to see through that which divides us and build something better in its place.

The hard work of building communities is often done in the shadows, away from public view and outside of the reach of people in power. It can be difficult, but dedicated organisations are doing it every day, with little fanfare or support. When we feel overcome with the dread that Modi and others sow, we should search for those making a difference in their little corners of the world. The brightness is there if you just look for it. 

You can catch the recorded sessions from India on the Brink on their event page.

To find out more about The Kanji Project, visit our website.