Thursday 17 January 2019

The Sudanese Spring? - Demonstrations and Dissent in Khartoum


2019 is likely to be a difficult year for Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir. As protests against his economic reforms continue to spread, including into loyalist areas of the country, the upheaval represents one of the greatest challenges to his 30-year rule of the country. The protests were triggered by a cut to wheat subsidies that saw the price of bread double overnight at the end of last year, but this was only the latest in a trend of economic decisions that have led to rampant inflation throughout the year.

The peaceful protests that emerged in response to this latest economic stressor were met with Bashir’s preferred tool for dealing with political unrest: excessive violence. Riot police, tear gas, and live ammunition have been employed across the country since the outbreak of protests on December 19th last year. As a result, Human Rights Watch claims that 40 protestors have been killed (The official death toll, according to Sudanese officials, is 24, as of the 13th January). According to official reports, a further 816 people have been arrested, university professors, students, doctors, and lawyers among them.

This new wave of protests is unique in that it encompasses people who have previously either supported the President or remained silent during periods of civil unrest. Even prominent party members have spoken out against their leader. According to some, Bashir’s position has never been weaker, and that means that the loyalty of the security forces that have quashed previous rebellions can no longer be guaranteed. As the International Crisis Group notes, “The police and other security agencies, including the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), have at times responded brutally but the army has shown greater restraint than before and, noting this, the opposition has urged generals to remove Bashir.” Rumblings in the military elite may signal a sign of growing discontent within the very groups Bashir requires to protect him.

Bashir’s grip has steadily loosened since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, which saw a dramatic 75% decrease in Sudan’s oil revenues. This, coupled with economic sanctions from many Western states (due largely to Sudan’s status in Washington as a “state sponsor of terrorism”), severely limited Bashir’s capacity to fund development projects in the country and maintain his security apparatus. As the wheat subsidies cuts demonstrate, it was the state’s social programmes that suffered. Critics maintain that economic mismanagement and the cost of fighting ethnic minority rebellions have left other government sectors severely underfunded for decades. For the many dedicated government staff who sincerely want to support Sudan’s civil society, Bashir clientelism is a constant obstacle to development. Increasingly, these former allies of Bashir are now speaking out and calling for desperately-needed reform.

Bashir may have felt that he did not need to consider the needs of an increasingly poor and disenfranchised population as long as he kept his security forces strong and loyal. He is no stranger to silencing critics through force. 200 protestors were killed in September 2013 after protests over a cut in fuel subsidies (authorities put the death toll at 84). The actions of the Sudanese Armed Forces and their Janjaweed militia allies in Darfur in 2003 – 2008 have led the ICC to issue a warrant for Bashir’s arrest on five counts of crimes against humanity, two counts of war crimes, and three counts of genocide. Whilst some fighting continues across Darfur, any regional groups that could have posed a direct threat to Bashir’s government have been splintered by the protracted violence inflicted upon the region. Despite the ICC warrant, Bashir has visited at least 33 countries with impunity, and continues to conduct state business on the global stage. It seems violence has served him extremely well in the past.

But violence alone cannot preserve a leader that has failed in too many other aspects. Half of Sudan’s population now live below the poverty line. With protestors calling for “freedom, peace and justice” in the same breath as they call for “the fall of the regime”, it becomes clear that this is a storm that Bashir may not weather. Sudan has great potential to be a prosperous nation, and the people show a renewed willingness to demand better of their leaders.

Due to his capacity to navigate a seemingly endless barrage of national emergencies, Bashir is often seen as a political survivor. But now it appears that the Sudanese public are no longer content with simply survival. They want to live.

You can keep up-to-date on the latest developments in Sudan via @YousraElbagir on Twitter.