2019 is likely to be a difficult year for Sudan’s President
Omar al-Bashir. As protests against his economic reforms continue to spread,
including into loyalist areas of the country, the upheaval represents one of
the greatest challenges to his 30-year rule of the country. The protests were
triggered by a cut to wheat subsidies that saw the price
of bread double overnight at the end of last year, but this was only
the latest in a trend of economic decisions that have led to rampant
inflation throughout the year.
The peaceful protests that emerged in response to this
latest economic stressor were met with Bashir’s preferred tool for dealing with
political unrest: excessive violence. Riot police, tear gas, and live
ammunition have been employed across the country since the outbreak of protests
on December 19th last year. As a result, Human
Rights Watch claims that 40 protestors have been killed (The
official death toll, according to Sudanese officials, is 24, as of the 13th
January). According to official
reports, a further 816 people have been arrested, university
professors, students, doctors, and lawyers among them.
This new wave of protests is unique in that it encompasses
people who have previously either supported the President or remained silent
during periods of civil unrest. Even prominent party members have spoken out
against their leader. According to some, Bashir’s position has
never been weaker, and that means that the loyalty of the security
forces that have quashed previous rebellions can no longer be guaranteed. As
the International
Crisis Group notes, “The police and other security agencies,
including the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), have at times
responded brutally but the army has shown greater restraint than before and,
noting this, the opposition has urged generals to remove Bashir.” Rumblings in
the military elite may signal a sign of growing discontent within the very
groups Bashir requires to protect him.
Bashir’s grip has steadily loosened since the secession of
South Sudan in 2011, which saw a dramatic 75%
decrease in Sudan’s oil revenues. This, coupled with economic
sanctions from many Western states (due largely to Sudan’s status in Washington
as a “state sponsor of
terrorism”), severely limited Bashir’s capacity to fund development
projects in the country and maintain his security apparatus. As the wheat
subsidies cuts demonstrate, it was the state’s social programmes that suffered.
Critics
maintain that economic mismanagement and the cost of fighting ethnic
minority rebellions have left other government sectors severely underfunded for
decades. For the many dedicated government staff who sincerely want to support
Sudan’s civil society, Bashir clientelism is a constant obstacle to development.
Increasingly, these former allies of Bashir are
now speaking out and calling for desperately-needed reform.
Bashir may have felt that he did not need to consider the
needs of an increasingly poor and disenfranchised population as long as he kept
his security forces strong and loyal. He is no stranger to silencing critics
through force. 200 protestors were
killed in September 2013 after protests over a cut in fuel subsidies
(authorities put the death toll at 84). The actions of the Sudanese Armed Forces
and their Janjaweed militia allies in
Darfur in 2003 – 2008 have led the ICC to issue a warrant
for Bashir’s arrest on five counts of crimes against humanity, two counts of
war crimes, and three counts of genocide. Whilst some fighting continues across
Darfur, any regional groups that could have posed a direct threat to Bashir’s
government have been splintered by the protracted violence inflicted upon the
region. Despite the ICC warrant, Bashir has visited at
least 33 countries with impunity, and continues to conduct state business
on the global stage. It seems violence has served him extremely well in the
past.
But violence alone cannot preserve a leader that has failed
in too many other aspects. Half of Sudan’s population now live
below the poverty line. With protestors calling for “freedom,
peace and justice” in the same breath as they call for “the
fall of the regime”, it becomes clear that this is a storm that
Bashir may not weather. Sudan has great potential to be a prosperous nation,
and the people show a renewed willingness to demand better of their leaders.
Due to his capacity to navigate a seemingly endless barrage
of national emergencies, Bashir is often seen as
a political survivor. But now it appears that the Sudanese public
are no longer content with simply survival. They want to live.
You can keep
up-to-date on the latest developments in Sudan via @YousraElbagir on Twitter.
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