Our Close-Mindedness is Killing Us

 The final episode of Mike Duncan’s excellent podcast The History of Rome opens with a discussion of what caused the collapse of the western Roman Empire. Rome itself, a civilisation that had been the hegemonic force in the Mediterranean for centuries, finally succumbed in the 400s AD, as Mike Duncan puts it, not with a bang but with a whimper. There are a thousand different reasons for its eventual collapse, ranging from economic crises, the weakening of the Roman legions, external pressures from other rising powers, climate change, and the emergence of a particular virulent plague outbreak. However, perhaps the most compelling reason for its collapse was the reversal of a Roman characteristic that, Duncan argues, had once made it the dominant force on the world stage.

Rome, from its inception, had been an outward-looking civilisation, ever expanding its borders and bringing new ethnic groups into its orbit. As Duncan explains, there was surprisingly little barrier to becoming a political leader in the Roman Empire if you were not “Romanized” in any sense that modern researchers might understand. Diversity of thought and culture, and expansion of boundaries, were prioritised in the golden era of Rome. Duncan argues convincingly that were it not for the new ideas and outlook brought to the Imperial throne by the Illyrian emperors that emerged in the aftermath of the Crisis of the Third Century, Rome could have collapsed nearly 200 years before it eventually did.

Mike Duncan's The History of Rome

When Roman ideas grew stale, the empire survived through adopting new cultural attitudes to leadership and organisation, and the Eternal City marched on. Rome was always characterised by the othering of those outside of the borderlands, with the Roman people facing off against barbarians at the gates on the frontiers of the Empire. Inside the Empire, however, all (with the notable exception of conquered slaves) were Roman citizens. When Rome stumbled, Illyrian Generals such as Diocletian, cultural and ethnic outsiders from the Italian forefathers of the empire, could don the purple and lead Romans back from the brink.  

However, by the time the 400s rolled round, this open-minded approach to culture had largely faded. Germanic Generals, such as Alaric, who for all intents and purposes were the most accomplished generals of their time, were excluded from the Imperial inner circle because the aged, stagnant Roman elite saw them as little more than barbarian savages who had no place at the table. As such, the best ideas of the time were not allowed to germinate in the halls of Roman power. Instead, they found new ways to develop. And as they inexorably grew, they stole the oxygen Rome needed to survive. The Eternal City suffocated because it refused to allow in new ideas. It died because of its own hubris, its own absolute certainty that Rome was superior, no matter what the evidence showed.

The modern world is fraught with similar prejudicial thinking. For the last two centuries, western thought has dominated global discourse. Beginning with European colonialism, the export of western ideals of social order and political organisation has been a defining feature of the modern global hierarchy. Often, as with the rise of Roman domination, this violent expansion of values to other societies was accompanied by brutal repression and ethnic violence in the name of “civilising the natives”. The barbarians at the gates motif was replaced with Social Darwinist theories that actively bastardised the scientific method in order to justify European looting of African, Asian, and American land. The ingroup / outgroup dynamic of coloniser and colonised remained intact.

The new world order that emerged after the end of the Second World War continued to push western liberal democratic values globally. As the European empires declined, American hegemony was established. Values of democracy, nationalism, neoliberalism, and globalisation were perpetuated to such an extent that by the fall of the Soviet Union those that subscribed to these liberal ideologies were prompted to announce that this could in fact be “The End of History”. Western thought was dominant. We were now a world of “developed” and “developing” countries. All that was left was for those developing countries to catch up to the “modern world”, and the job was done.

Unfortunately, when global powers begin to believe that they have found The Answer, they close their eyes and ears to any external ideologies that might challenge their progression. This, Duncan argues, is a major contributing factor to the fall of the Western Roman Empire. And this, I am suggesting, is emerging as a significant threat to the current world order as we know it. In particular, it threatens those of us in western global hegemon, those developed countries in Europe and the Americas that “lead the way” in global development. We are products of a system that tells us we have the best possible structure for political and social organisation. But what if we don’t have that?

All ideas, good or bad, die when they no longer provide realistic solutions to a more diverse, disparate population of adherents. The system still works for those in the centres of power, but those at the fringes grow increasingly disillusioned and distracted by new value systems. Complacency kills civilisations.

The NYTimes published a bunch of photos of Thailand doing things right and titled it No One Knows What Thailand Is Doing Right. Credit: Indi Samarajiva.

But more importantly that than, complacency kills people. As is outlined in an excellent blog by Indi Samarajiva regarding media coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic, western journalism often fails to accurately describe western failures. Our inability to fathom that the “developed” nations of the world have erred when “developing” states have successfully halted the spread of COVID to a far greater extent than the US, UK, or Germany is actively harming our capacity to respond. I urge you to read the article in full, but the key takeaway from this powerful piece is that in the west, our own hubris is clouding our understanding of effective COVID responses, and potentially killing us in the thousands.

Referencing a recent NY Post article, Samarajiva pushes back against a headline that states “Scientists can’t explain puzzling lack of coronavirus outbreaks in Africa”. He argues, forcefully, that they can. Its simple, effective, public health messaging. Messaging that has been completely lacking in western states. As Donald Trump veers from denying the virus is a threat, to refusing to wear a mask, to insisting he always said mask-wearing was important, to a brief interlude where he pondered the merits of drinking bleach, African nations have been working on solid, clear messaging to explain to populations what the virus is and how its spread can be slowed. As the UK public struggles to keep up-to-date with exactly what our guidance is – apparently the virus only comes out after 10pm if you’re in a pub, but make sure you’re going into the office, as long as you avoid the office where possible, but don’t forget to Eat Out to Help Out, and if you want to get married there can only be 15 of you, but if someone dies you can meet in a group of 30; but other than its six people unless you go grouse-hunting, why aren’t you following this? – Ghana has enacted pooled testing to maximise the effectiveness of its limited resources.

And why shouldn’t developing nations have the upper hand when it comes to effective public health communication?

In contexts that have been dealing with various health crises and epidemics for decades, you would expect that national leaders and community organisations have developed a toolkit for effective disaster response. In the words of Samarajiva, “I understand you’re used to seeing [developing countries] as disaster areas, but this has made us disaster masters. Poor nations have almost uniformly reacted quickly, decisively and survived.”

Take Africa, as an example of a continent that has most recently almost completely quashed the Ebola outbreak that threatened to turn into a pandemic of its own in 2014, continues to deal with the devastating effects of malaria and the AIDS epidemic, and is constantly combating all manner of contagious diseases in poorer communities with little access to medical support. Why would they not have the highest quality public health messaging available? Why would they not have built up trust in their health institutions so that people pay attention and comply with their regulations?

The answer, of course, is that they have done exactly that. And whilst anti-mask rallies take place all over Europe and America, citizens in developing countries quietly do what has to be done so that they can get back to functioning as normal. Meanwhile, and again I’m quoting Samarjiva, “the western media anoints white Germany a COVID leader, despite having outbreak the size of Iraq’s. They should be looking at Vietnam. Vietnam has the same population, much less wealth and has had a dramatically better response. Nearly 10,000 people have died in Germany, compared to 35 in Vietnam. Every two days Germany has as many cases as Vietnam did total. What are you learning here?”.

What we should be learning is that we do not have the answers to this crisis. Our governments, collectively, across the West, are failing us. We as communities are failing to get a grip of this crisis. We compare our own nation’s results to that of other, similar nations, and we neglect the majority of the world beyond these western walls. The barbarians at the gates have the answers we’re looking for, but we’re too blind to see them.

Finally, I will leave it once again to Indi Samarajiva to make the point that we’ve been missing for far too long:

“The racism of COVID coverage is overwhelming, and for once it’s not overwhelming us. We’re fine. My kids are in school. We’re having birthday parties. We’re living. This time, your racism is overwhelming you.”

If we fail to learn from those who are leading the way in the COVID response simply because we are too blind to see that they’re leading, we will continue to suffer the consequences of our ignorance.

Failing to tackle the racism that shapes so much of Western thought will leave us without the tools to tackle not just COVID-19, but all of the complex challenges of the 21^st century.

The ISC Russia Report - Exploiting a Breakdown of Political Legitimacy

The belated release of the ISC Russia Report (accessible here, released on the 21^st July 2020), which was ready for publication last October but sat on by Johnson’s government until long after the December election and UK’s exit from the European Union on 31^st January this year, has raised important questions about the state of British intelligence in the modern age of disinformation warfare.

The spectre of Russian interference in western politics and its potential effect on election outcomes has been discussed extensively, but little has been done to combat what is seen as a covert erosion of democratic institutions in the west through the targeted spread of disinformation and the clandestine support of institutions that directly or indirectly benefit the Kremlin’s objectives. In this context, the ISC report makes several points that may explain the reluctance on behalf of the UK government to publish its findings, notably that:

• There was little intelligence oversight into potential Russian meddling in the EU referendum or UK general elections, because the issue was seen as a “hot potato”, which no agency wanted to take responsibility for. Agencies did not see it as their responsibility to engage with issues related to UK democratic processes, which the report slams as “illogical”.
• Even in the aftermath of the revelations of Russian interference in the Scottish Independence Referendum, support for the French Front National, and attempts to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential elections, there was still no retrospective review into the possibility of Russian interference in the Brexit referendum.
• In focusing disproportionately on terror-related threats, UK intelligence agencies allocated fewer and fewer resources to monitoring hostile state actions, and this has left us “playing catch up” to Russian espionage tactics.
• Russian elites have used London as a base for many operations linked to the Russian state. The UK government welcomed Russian money, particularly flowing into London, with little to no oversight over where that money was coming from. The “London laundromat” has allowed illicit finances to be recycled and legitimised, with patronage from the British establishment. Indeed, according to the report, these illicit funds funnelled through the oligarchs were welcomed “with open arms”.
• The money was also invested in extending patronage and building influence across a wide sphere of the British establishment – PR firms, charities, political interests, academia and cultural institutions were all willing beneficiaries of Russian money, contributing to a ‘reputation laundering’ process.

The Kremlin, the seat of Putin's power in Moscow.

Given the extensive evidence and widespread knowledge that Russia is adept at disinformation warfare, and especially considering that the UK is quite clearly a top priority target of Russian influence in the West (let’s not forget that the Salisbury poisoning of Sergei Skripal in 2018 was a Kremlin-sponsored chemical attack on British territory that killed a British civilian), the lack of focus on Hostile State Actions (as actions against foreign states is referred to in the intelligence community) in British intelligence is surprising.

An extract from the Russia Report, detailing the lack of investigation into Russian interference in the EU referendum campaign.

The report does note that MI5, GCHQ, and SIS (MI6) have always had to juggle multiple threats in determining where to apportion their resources and attention, but notes that in 2006, the year that Alexander Litvinenko was assassinated in London, MI5 had devoted 92% of its effort to counter-terrorism work, with SIS and GCHQ at 33%. Whilst it is reported that the percent of resources allocated to Hostile State Actions has risen again in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the exact split of focus was redacted in the report, and it is acknowledged that British intelligence continues to play catch up in terms of understanding the true reach of Russian influence in western politics.

This makes the assertion that there has been no retrospective review into Russian interference in British politics since 2016 even more damning. In stark contrast, Russian interference in the 2016 election of Donald Trump was investigated by US intelligence and a summary report was released, revealing that the Kremlin had hacked Democrat party servers and leaked damaging files in the run up to the election, potentially swinging opinion towards Donald Trump.

Of course, the extent to which Russian interference swayed the election is extremely debatable, as it is in the UK case, but considering the slim margins by which Trump won the election (actually receiving fewer overall votes but winning through the electoral college) and the Brexit vote passed (52% - 48%), any swing of the needle as a result of foreign state meddling should be investigated. The fact that no such investigation was instigated by any of the British intelligence services when there is such credible circumstantial evidence is damning, especially considering Boris Johnson’s suppression of the report upon its initial attempted release.

There should be no legitimate reason to suppress or prevent an investigation into foreign state meddling into UK democratic processes. As the report clearly states, if an extensive investigation found no interference, it would increase public confidence in electoral mechanisms. Regardless of reality, this obfuscation on behalf of the Johnson government, at a time of exceptional political turmoil in the country, will raise eyebrows and suggestions that he, or other current ministers or advisors, are a part of the British establishment that welcomed illegitimate Russian money into the UK “with open arms”.  

"The London Laundromat" - recycling dirty Russian money and enriching many benefactors in the British establishment.

To be clear, this report does not suggest that that is the case, and neither am I. There is no evidence of that. But with no thorough independent investigation into what we know is a credible threat, conspiracy is bound to grow, and further undermine the legitimacy of the UK government administration.

What matters here is what we consider to be our national security priorities. Since 9/11, counter-terror has overwhelmingly been the focus of British intelligence. This makes sense, as we have many examples, including in the years following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, that terrorism poses the greatest threat to life of the British public. But the terror threat in the UK is most significantly a result of home-grown terror cells rather than foreign bodies. As a result, the responsibility for tackling this can, and should, be more widely distributed. Conventional policing, social work, programmes like Prevent that allow the reporting of at-risk individuals, and community action can supplement covert intelligence operations to reduce the risk of homegrown terrorism affecting British lives.

In contrast, these same actors that can be so effective in reducing the threat of terrorism have very little control over hostile state interference in domestic politics. Whilst the operations undertaken by the Kremlin in western democracies has less direct impact on human life, it can sow political divisions and cause havoc in domestic politics and between western allies. That is its goal, and its long-term effect may be far more insidious than the connected but disparate terror attacks we have seen across the UK in recent years.

And it is not just Russia that has been utilising new technologies and methodologies to target western democracies. As the controversy surrounding Huawei’s 5g ban in the UK also demonstrates, a brewing cold war between the west and China threatens increased tit-for-tat escalations and antagonisms. Following Trump’s ill-advised assassination of Iranian General Qasim Soleimani in Iraq in January, it has been reported that an informant who gave the US information on Soleimani’s movements has been executed (on the 20^th July, one day before the release of the UK Russia Report). That short-lived crisis resulted in the death of 176 civilians when Iran unintentionally shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane whilst on heightened alert for further US attacks on military targets in Iran.

The era of great power politics is not over. Escalating international tension as a result of the wave of authoritarian political movements across the world threatens a return to Cold War realpolitik if we do not take these threats seriously and respond accordingly.

The findings of the ISC Russia report demonstrate the imperative for a thorough investigation into any potential interference in British politics by external powers, and the need for a shift in the intelligence community to address the growing threat of state-sponsored meddling in our political institutions.

The spread of increasingly reactionary politics across many western democracies can be in-part attributed to a feeling of disenfranchisement, of large groups of a population feeling left behind by political elites in capital cities. There are many reasons for this, the vast majority of them domestic in nature, and they should be addressed. But if hostile states can infiltrate our democratic systems by feeding these feelings of disenfranchisement, they can widen an already growing divide. They can turn a crack in the surface into a sinkhole that cannot be plugged.

As the report suggests, British intelligence is currently playing catch up in this new great game of cyber warfare, disinformation spread, and the slow erosion of democracy. That starts with an open, honest discussion of where international connections influence domestic institutions at an individual, organisational, and societal level.

Countering this encroachment, both in our domestic politics and with an eye on our international competitors, will be essential to the survival of the United Kingdom as we know it.

In Defence of the Truth - A Weapon Against Tyranny

Four years ago, Donald Trump became President. His campaign was one that revelled in the counterfactual, following arguably his first foray into mainstream politics with his racist claims that Barrack Obama was not an American citizen. Overnight, the world became familiar with the phrase that has defined not just his administration, but the global context that we currently find ourselves in. “Fake news” is king. Mainstream news media has been consistently attacked by governments around the world. Social media has allowed for the propagation of disinformation as effectively at it has democratised access to real facts.

Fake news as a concept gained popularity around 2016 and was quickly adopted by Donald Trump in his unhinged rants aimed at media outlets such as CNN, Time, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and basically anyone else who said something he did not like. In 2017, he shut down a CNN reporter’s question by asserting “you are fake news”. In 2018, he even hosted the “Fake News Awards”, where again, CNN featured heavily. On the 28^th May 2020, a CNN reporter was arrested by armed police whilst reporting on the Minneapolis protests that emerged in response to the murder of George Floyd in cold blood by a Minnesota police officer. Several other journalists have been targeted in the days since. This escalation was far from without warning, but it adds a new dimension to the violence targeted at African-Americans that suggests there will be an even less apologetic, more openly antagonistic police response to these protests than to the last major unrest in 2014/15.

George Floyd and his murderer Derek Chauvin. Photos: NY Times.

Coming just weeks after heavily-armed white militia entered the Michigan state capitol in protest against coronavirus lockdown measures, the murder of George Floyd understandably has led to a public outcry. How does a group of white men wielding assault rifles and wearing combat fatigues get to go home to their families after occupying a state building, whilst an unarmed black father of two, suspected of forgery (after allegedly using forged documents and a counterfeit $20 note to order food at a deli) is condemned to die with a knee on his throat? 6 years after the death of Eric Garner, which helped spur the Black Lives Matter Movement, another black man died at the hands of a white policer officer after uttering the final words “I can’t breathe”. They are two of many. The outrage felt by millions over this systemic racism and brutality has spilled out into protests before, but the Trump administration's complete disregard for the concerns of protestors, and Trumps tacit support for white supremacist groups in his rhetoric has given rise to a new anger that his government will be incapable of quelling.

Armed white protestors pictured in Michigan a few weeks ago, protesting the coronavirus lockdown, seen wielding assault rifles, some displaying confederate flags and even swastikas. Considered less dangerous than an unarmed black man accused of forging a check. Currently at home with their families. 

Protests broke out almost immediately across Minnesota, and with the announcement that criminal charges would not be brought against the four officers involved (Derek Chauvin has now been arrested in response to the outcry), these protests continued to gather steam and riots broke out. In this moment of crisis, President Donald Trump appeared to take to Twitter to advocate for the use of lethal force to restore order, stating “when the looting starts, the shooting starts”. Aside from the obviously sinister undertones of that statement, and the similarly racist use of the term “thugs” to describe the protestors, Twitter determined that this tweet in particular breached their rules because it glorified violence - a finding that it is impossible to deny. However, this, along with another spat about Trump’s fake claims regarding mail-in ballots that Twitter pointed out were untrue and required fact-checking, has led the President to sign an executive order attempting to prevent Twitter from adding these warnings to his absurd and dangerous tweets. Pointing out that basically everything the President tweets to the world is untrue is, according to Trump, an attack on his free speech.

Some of the Tweets that Twitter deemed in violation of their rules

This coming from the administration that has just arrested a CNN reporter for covering a major news story that portrays the police and government in a bad light.

Lie in order to spread doubt over the democratic process for the upcoming election. Lie to demonise a rightly angry population. Lie to protect your power, and lie to allow the lying to continue. Accuse those who are trying to bring the truth to light of being “fake news”, and then incite violence against them. These are the actions of man who is eroding democracy. These are the actions of a fascist and a dictator.

How can we hold governments to account, when we do not know what the facts are?

We have access to more information that at any point in human history, which means we also have access to more disinformation than ever before. Increasingly, authoritarian regimes and liberal democracies alike are leaning on the confusion caused by this overwhelming amount of data to strengthen their political positions.

So, let’s get some facts straight.

George Floyd was murdered by a police officer who had had several previous accusations of racism brought against him. In response, angry protestors took to the streets. Those protests escalated to riots following a heavy-handed police response. And Donald Trump took to Twitter to incite violence against an angry, disenfranchised, and oppressed section of US society. He branded those who disagree with his white supremacist, inflammatory rhetoric as “fake news”. He praised those in his supporter base who threatened journalists, political opponents, rights campaigners, and anyone else who dared point out his ignorance.

US citizens continue to be murdered on the streets by a police force that is supposed to protect them. Reporters, attempting to tell the story as it unfolds, are arrested. And, regardless of reality, if what you say contradicts the President, you are wrong.

Trump would have you believe that there is only one reality, one truth, and it’s the one inside his head. Do I really need to spell out where that sort of thinking ends up?

The truth still matters. And we have to defend it.

Learn how to counter disinformation here:

https://gcs.civilservice.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/RESIST_Toolkit.pdf

Find out more about protecting the rights of journalists, and support real freedom of speech here:

https://www.amnesty.org.uk/free-speech-freedom-expression-human-right

https://www.libertyhumanrights.org.uk/right/freedom-of-expression/

Donate to help cover the legal fees on the Minnesota protestors here: https://minnesotafreedomfund.org/donate

No Such Thing As Normal - Dreaming of a Post-COVID World

In the UK, we are now over a month into the COVID-19 lockdown that has brought the world to a halt. The death figures continue to rise, and our government appears to mark each day with new revelations of catastrophic mismanagement of the crisis and a seeming overwhelming drive to protect themselves rather than the public. In an atmosphere of uncertainty, people have become increasingly unsure of what to do during this lockdown. Counterfactual narratives have been shared across social media platforms, with no response from officials or health experts, and impatience at the perceived draconian measures being taken to prevent the virus spreading is growing.

A glimpse of the kind of discord that lockdown measures can sow is evident in the absurd anti-quarantine protests currently taking place across the United States. Although the number of people involved in the protests is currently relatively small, their impact has been to poison the discourse around the coronavirus lockdown in the states and embolden those who would break the rules intended to prevent the spread of the virus. These protests grow as President Donald Trump insanely suggests that perhaps disinfectant could be injected as a response to COVID-19. His statement prompted global disinfectant manufacturers Dettol and Lysol to warn people against ingesting their products.

Nurses face down anti-lockdown protesters in Colorado, US. Credit: Alyson McClaran/Reuters.

What is happening in the US right now is absurd and dystopian. It goes beyond satire, but we mustn’t forget that its real. And in other countries, like the UK, the same anti-scientific trend cuts a more insidious path. Our own Prime Minister proudly proclaimed that he “shook hands with everybody” in a COVID-19 hospital ward at the end of March. At the time of writing, he finally returns to work after a bout of COVID-19 that nearly killed him. In his absence, our government continues to lie about its coronavirus response – first promising 100,000 tests a day by the end of April which seem incredibly unlikely to materialise, then deliberately dodging questions related to the number of COVID-19 deaths in care homes, and unsuccessfully trying to inflate the number of tests of NHS workers currently being completed daily in parliamentary questions. Simultaneously, BBC panorama reports that “more than half of all the PPE items [included in official figures] are surgical gloves - and in most cases, each individual glove is counted rather than pairs.” (emphasis my own). That means that the UK government is deliberately inflating the number of PPE items it is claiming to have delivered to frontline workers, as it is announced that over 100 NHS staff have now died of COVID-19.

But whilst the news appears to bombard us with more shocking revelations every day about our lack of preparedness, our botched responses, our hypocritical leaders, growing social tension, and rising deaths, something else is also happening, quietly and without acknowledgement in the mainstream media. I first noticed when I realised I had found myself agreeing with Piers Morgan, of all people, as he challenged government ministers on their handling of the crisis. Then I noticed that my neighbours on my street, none of whom have I spoken to before, have started to chat to each other over garden walls after the weekly clap for the NHS. You can look at volunteering figures in the country and find that support agencies cannot keep up with the demand of people wanting to help out however they can. The skies are clearer, nature is returning, people are learning to adapt and cope in a situation they never would have dreamed of 5 months ago. People are coming together, across political lines and social divides, giving up time to help others and try to make a difference.

This gives me hope for the future after the crisis subsides.

Dramatically reduced pollution levels across London and Europe as a result of the lockdown. Credit: Descartes Labs.

We are far from out of the woods. There is a lot more turmoil, disruption, and heartache for us to bear. But this will one day end. With a vaccine, perhaps a cure, better treatment, a better protected, more resilient health care system, and a greater appreciation for the need to prepare, properly fund and support our health care workers and medical researchers, we will emerge from this crisis.

But we should not long to return to normal.

Normal was 10 years of austerity, politicians cheering at halting pay rises for junior doctors, rising xenophobia and racism across the developed world, continuing inequality, and a global population marching blindly off the cliff of the climate crisis. I was pissed off at the world long before COVID-19, and so were many others.

The pandemic has been worsened by much of this action. The crisis has been defined by NHS staff and essential workers going into battle without proper protection. It has been defined by catastrophic mismanagement by our leadership. It has been an excuse to further alienate outside groups and turn inwards. It has been a global crisis, and a personal tragedy for millions. And it will continue to be, for many more months.

But it has also been a time to come together. Physically distant but socially strong, millions have volunteered for NHS support roles, and many more have signed up to deliver food and medicines to the most vulnerable. We've all found ways to stay connected in this darkest of times. It has been clearer skies, falling pollution, a return of nature to our global beauty spots. It has been a time of reflection, a time of appreciation for those things we previously took for granted. It has been a time of learning. We can change. We have changed. And, if necessary, we will change again.

One day we will turn on the news and we will have beaten this silent killer. We will have overcome. We will be able to see our families again, to go out with friends again, to travel, to go to public spaces, to sit in a beer garden or go to a football game or an art gallery, to go to a gig or watch a show. We will be able to return to our social norms.

But we must not return to normal.

We must do better.

We can do better.

We will do better.

COVID-19 has exposed the weaknesses in our governments that must be addressed when this comes to an end. Leaders must be held to account for their failures in managing the crisis. But COVID-19 has also exposed the weaknesses in ourselves. And we must be held to account as well. We must ask who we want to be.

For every landlord who kicked out essential staff for fear they would bring the infection into their homes, many more have welcomed them in with free accommodation. For every attacker who targeted Asian minorities in countries around the world, others have focused on supporting Asian businesses and highlighting their importance to our country. To those who flouted social distancing rules and met up with friends and family, remember that millions of others stayed home. To the hoarders, and to the conspiracy theorists spreading medical misinformation, and to the anti-lockdown protestors, you should remember how you acted in this time of crisis. And you should remember that you are in the minority.

Selfishness, callousness, and stupidity have defined some of us during this time. But the majority have shown resilience, capacity to adapt and change, compassion, kindness, and solidarity. The new world that emerges after the crisis will need a lot more of that.

I've spent a lot of time throughout this despairing at the news of government failure, community failure, and global indifference. No doubt I will feel that a lot more before we are through. But we will get through. And we get to choose what our new dawn looks like.

The challenges will be many. Containing, treating, and slowing the spread of COVID-19 in developing countries with poorer health care systems will be a far bigger task than even here in the UK. The challenge of COVID in refugee camps and slums globally seems insurmountable. We must do all we can to aid the poorest among us, as they will suffer the most if we do not. If we weather the coronavirus storm, the climate crisis will lead to greater devastation, more upheaval, more ruined livelihoods and premature deaths, but we now know that we can and will respond to these threats when we have to. So we must.

Tackling the joint challenges of coronavirus, poverty, and overcrowding in slums will be a key obstacle to global recovery from this pandemic. Credit: Getty Images.

The coronavirus pandemic has taught us above all else that we are a global community. When a disease breaks out in China, it will bring Europe to its knees weeks later. If COVID is controlled in one place but not another, it will return with a vengeance at similar speed. Similarly, if we do not lower our carbon emissions in the Western world, before the end of the century Pacific Islands will be underwater, and Africa and Asia will face worse storms than we can currently conceive. Violence and instability in distant parts of the world will prompt mass displacement, and spawn the rise of far-right hate groups in countries receiving refugees. What each and every one of us does at every moment matters, because we are all connected.

If you ignore social distancing now and go to see your friends when you should be in lockdown, you could unknowingly spread the virus and kill someone you will never meet. If you share a Facebook Post with incorrect medical advice, a friend of a friend might see it, follow it, and end up in hospital taking up a bed someone else might need. If you clap for the NHS without holding the government who failed to provide them with appropriate PPE to account, more doctors will die.

If you go back to normal when this pandemic is over, we can expect more frequent, more severe disasters around the corner. A more unstable and dangerous world can lead to people turning on each other, and greater levels of intergroup violence and hatred. If you do not stand up to those who share bigotry, xenophobia, racism and sexism today, it will be too late by then.

Once this is over, let's not get back to normal. Breathe the cleaner air, hear the birds sing, be thankful for the privilege of being able to social distance and keep safe. And fight like hell for those who can't, and who won't be protected from the next crisis. Though it might not feel like it, today we are the lucky ones. Tomorrow we might not be. But whatever happens, we will always have each other.

If nothing else, COVID-19 should teach us that.

Coronavirus volunteering opportunities:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/participation/get-involved/volunteering/#

https://www.redcross.org.uk/get-involved/volunteer

Donate to organisations fighting coronavirus in the UK:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/apr/11/donate-help-victims-coronavirus-hospital-food-bank

https://www.redcross.org.uk/about-us/what-we-do/uk-emergency-response/coronavirus

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/coronavirus-charity-donate-how-to-help-support-vulnerable-a9437711.html

And abroad:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/donate

https://thekanjiproject.org.uk/tkp-coronavirus-statement/

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COVID-19 and the Threat of Disaster Fascism

On the 30^th March, the Hungarian Parliament voted 137 – 53 to give Viktor Orban’s government the power to rule by decree in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Such measures, ostensibly in order to give the government a free-hand to take action against the spread of the virus, have raised significant concerns both within Hungary and across Europe, with critics arguing that it gives Orban “unnecessary and unlimited power”. Particularly worrying is the fact that these powers have been bestowed upon Orban with no time limit, effectively, in the words of opposition leader Peter Jakkab, placing the whole of Hungarian democracy “in quarantine” indefinitely.

Despite support in the public sphere for governments to have tight control over their coronavirus response, the main worry is that certain individuals and governments may use this power to their own advantage. Viktor Orban has long been seen as a threat to democracy in Hungary, and since rising to power in 2010 has systematically chipped away at many of the checks and balances of the Hungarian state. His far-right populist policies, claims that Europe is “under invasion”, and authoritarian tendencies have plagued policy-makers in the European Union since long before the current crisis. COVID-19 has given him the push he needed to seize absolute control of Hungary, ostensibly as a legitimate response to the current emergency. His track record, however, suggests that such powers will be used to further solidify his position, leading some to claim that with Hungary, COVID-19 has “killed its first democracy”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban - the first Western leader to use COVID-19 for personal gain?

Whilst it remains to be seen if such fears have been misplaced, the threat of authoritarian rulers using the COVID-19 pandemic to consolidate their own power and pursue external goals is very real. It could be argued that the pandemic has taken hold at an unfortunate time in history, where many states around the world are witnessing a shift towards authoritarian thinking. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, for instance, has flouted the international norm and pushed ahead with continued economic and social activity across Brazil, despite members of his own cabinet falling victim to the virus. In response to criticisms of his approach, he has threatened to fire his health ministers and scientific advisers. As Bolsonaro continues to bury his head in the sand, it has fallen to Rio's gangs to enforce social distancing measures in the communities they inhabit.

In India, Hindu-nationalist leader Narendra Modi has been widely criticised for his botched handling of the lockdown which resulted in widespread violence and displacement across the country. In a context of great division even before the pandemic, Indian minority groups now fear that the lockdown measures will be used as a way to further disenfranchise and disconnect them from access to government support. Muslim groups, displaced by pogroms in Delhi, can expect little to no support from the government in the coming weeks. With those forced to exist in displaced people’s camps, with little to no medical support or capacity to self-isolate, the coronavirus can be expected to spread rapidly amongst these vulnerable groups. A rising number of sick Muslims in India could easily be weaponised as a way to further alienate the group from the Hindu majority, and these populations can expect to be scapegoated as the crisis deepens in the coming weeks.

Xenophobia and racism can spiral in times of crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Donald Trump’s insistence at referring to the virus as the “Chinese Virus” highlights the way that populists can turn an emergency into a blame game. China’s own authoritarian leadership has been quick to fuel rumours that the coronavirus outbreak may have been caused by the US military in an act of biological warfare, an absurd claim that nevertheless escalates the war of words between the superpowers and undermines global diplomacy at a time where it is needed more than ever. With the outbreak originating in China, there will undoubtedly be questions directed at the management of the early stages of the spread of the virus in Wuhan, and many of them will be well-placed and require hard answers. With global economies sliding into free-fall thanks to COVID-19, China finds itself in the firing line as stock markets tank, industries collapse, and people lose their livelihoods. 

Accompanying this real need for accountability comes ignorance, scapegoating, and thinly-veiled racism.

Never far from the crest of any wave of opportunistic race-baiting, Nigel Farage is again making headlines for attacking the UK government for its decision to purchase ventilators from China, with others suggesting that we cannot ‘trust’ the Chinese to sell uncontaminated ventilators. With reports that US government officials are referring to the virus as the “Kung Flu” in response to Chinese-American reporters asking questions, and increasing vitriol being posted on social media accounts across the West aimed at Chinese users, it seems clear that we are witnessing a global rise in hate speech as the pandemic continues. Such rhetoric has spilled over into actions, with reports of mob-violence directed at Asian people in the UK, and a “shocking rise” in hate crimes reported by police, even with the current social distancing conditions in the country.

In response to such behaviour, already stretched emergency services can and should respond to limit the damage caused by those who do not follow the rules of the lockdown. In the UK, we’ve seen allegations of the rise of a “police state” as forces around the country seek to limit interpersonal contact. Such a claim is absurd and ridiculous, but it demonstrates how uncomfortable British people are with government encroachment on their own social lives. In Italy, we’ve seen increasingly aggressive tactics being used by stretched-to-the-limit police forces trying to ensure people stay on lockdown. In Spain, the military has been deployed to keep people inside.

The Spanish military enforcing lockdown measures. Credit: Olive Press.

Avoiding these authoritarian measures is simple. Do what is being advised by the experts. Stay inside, keep your distance from others, support the vulnerable in your community where possible, wash your hands, and do everything possible to slow the spread of the virus. If we practice personal responsibility, and social solidarity, then our governments need not intervene as stringently on our behalf.

We in the West do not take kindly to the sort of authoritarian response that has been seen in China. We do not do well when our civil liberties are threatened. Some people take this to mean they do not have to follow government advice. But those people should remember that in a crisis, advice can very quickly become an order. In an attempt to protect its people, a government sometimes has to make undemocratic decisions. In the case of Hungary, the country’s leadership has solidified its power in order to respond to an unprecedented crisis. When the pandemic has subsided, Hungary may just find that one of the victims of COVID-19 was its democratic values.

Strong, sometimes draconian, measures will be required to combat the spread of COVID-19. Governments will be forced to make decisions that they would never consider in business-as-usual circumstances. In some cases, the democratic process may have to be postponed. There are many legitimate reasons for governments to impose more direct rule in a time of crisis. But now is no time to blindly support the actions of national leaders. We must watch closely what is done, critique the decisions that are made, and be definitive about where we as citizens draw our hard lines on what we deem acceptable intervention on our behalf.

The COVID-19 pandemic will pass, and when it does, we will be left with the consequences of our actions during this time. This means we must take personal responsibility for every decision we make. This means social solidarity with our neighbours and communities, helping the vulnerable where we can, and abiding by social distancing measures to slow the spread. This also means holding our governments to account for their actions during this time. If we do not take personal responsibility for halting the spread of COVID-19, our governments will be forced to enact more authoritarian policies to ensure the safety of the most vulnerable. Once that power is wielded, it can be difficult to put back in the box.

We all want the COVID-19 pandemic to be brought to an end. The only measure to stop the spread of the virus is to keep ourselves physically distant from one another until we have a vaccine or a cure. That can be achieved by a mass movement of social solidarity, or through government force.

Now more than ever, we need to look at our leaders, and look at ourselves, and ask what kind of society we want to live in.

The most insidious side effect of COVID-19 could be the way it erodes the social fabric of our democracies globally. We cannot allow that to happen.

Stay physically distant, but socially engaged. Help your friends, your neighbours, and the most vulnerable in your communities. Hold your governments to account. Use this crisis to build a new world that is better equipped to cope with whatever the future may hold. Do not look blame others. The power is in every one of us to do the right thing and avoid the threat of disaster fascism encroaching on our liberties and our lives.

The Spiralling Impacts of COVID-19 for the Humanitarian and Development Sector

The global coronavirus pandemic has rocked whole societies and ground economies to a halt across the world. In the UK, the NHS is expected to be stretched far beyond its limit, businesses are closing down, and people are being advised to self-isolate to limit the spread. In a well-developed, well-prepared society like the UK, such challenges are scary, but there is a good chance that if safety precautions are followed the spread of the virus can be brought under control. But we have already seen that COVID-19 has the capacity to cripple even developed nations’ healthcare systems, such as in Italy and China, and developed nations across the world are taking increasingly draconian measures to fight the greatest public health crises in recent memory.

But if COVID-19 is capable of wreaking such havoc across some the best-prepared nations on earth, then its impact on populations without access to the services we take for granted will be exponentially greater.

Photo Credit: Norwegian Refugee Council. A Syrian boy poses for a picture during an awareness workshop on coronavirus (COVID-19) at a camp for displaced people in Atme town in Syria's northwestern Idlib province, near the border with Turkey.

For instance, one of the worst affected nations currently is Iran. The country is facing near-total breakdown, with leaders dying, reports of mass burial pits for victims of the coronavirus, and an unknown death toll that some warn could eventually reach into the millions. Government mismanagement of the response has been blamed, as has the unfortunate timing of the virus arriving in the city of Qom during a mass Shia pilgrimage to the site, which may have helped speed up the spread. But many others are pointing to the severe limitations of Iran’s capacity to deal with the outbreak due to the continued US sanctions placed on the country. Due to the confusing nature of the sanctions, certain exemptions for humanitarian imports are still not translating into available materials for healthcare providers.

For example, a sanction on paper material entering the country has resulted in many doctors and nurses facing work without such basic equipment as facemasks. As Human Rights Watch pointed out in October, “while the US government has built exemptions for humanitarian imports into its sanctions regime … in practice these exemptions have failed to offset the strong reluctance of US and European companies and banks to risk incurring sanctions and legal action by exporting or financing exempted humanitarian goods.” The result, they conclude, “has been to deny Iranians access to essential medicines and to impair their right to health.”

And Iran is not the only country struggling with sanctions as it attempts to contain and delay COVID-19. Syria, too, has seen a war-weakened health system further impeded by international sanctions. Although, as with Iran, exemptions are made for humanitarian aid, in Syria’s case an embargo on oil imports has meant that ambulances have been left without fuel. Other countries with weaker health systems than those in the west will undoubtedly suffer more greatly. This is a political and economic crisis as much as a public health one, and our actions with regard to each other will impact the outcome of our response.

However, citizens of poorer countries can still practice the same self-isolation techniques as those of us in the UK. Other groups, such as refugees and internally displaced persons’ do not have the luxury of locking themselves away in homes. In Moria camp in Greece, for instance, the threat of COVID-19 is looming large over the front-line doctors working daily to support new arrivals in the overcrowded, underfunded camps. Medecins sans Frontieres have called for an immediate evacuation of the camp, highlighting that in some areas there is only one water tap for up to 1,300 residents, making widescale cross contamination almost inevitable. Since the first confirmed case in Moria on the 13^th March, the Greek government has called a temporary suspension of non-state organisations working in the camps, which MSF argues will lead to a much more severe crisis in the coming weeks.

And even in the absence of government suspensions of activity, humanitarian organisations are finding it harder and harder to do their jobs as COVID-19 spreads around the globe. Jan Egeland, the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, himself currently in quarantine, highlighted the difficulties of continuing to work in a context where many staff members are sick and showing symptoms of the novel coronavirus, or are otherwise unable to travel to their worksites, saying that the COVID-19 response should be “treated like a warzone”. Agencies are scrambling to deliver public health services in contexts of displacement and conflict to help slow the spread of coronavirus, but they are also finding their ongoing activities hindered or halted entirely due to the pandemic.

The World Bank has now committed $14 billion to fighting COVID-19 in developing countries, and particularly in supporting local private sector networks to continue to work and keep supply chains moving in areas that require support to keep hospitals and food markets open, but much more must be done to support the most vulnerable populations in this time of crisis. Much like within the UK, we must be aware that poor, elderly, immunocompromised, or isolated individuals need greater support than the majority of us for whom coronavirus may just be a severe flu, we must take a global perspective when planning our response to the crisis as a whole.

To stop a pandemic, everybody needs to be prepared. In the same way that those of us currently stockpiling our own hand sanitiser, hand soap, toilet paper, and other sanitary products are in fact increasing the risk of the virus continuing to spread by leaving others without access to these goods (what good is having five boxes of hand sanitiser if your neighbour and colleague can’t get any and therefore they catch the virus and pass it onto you!?), it is not enough to protect our own communities and nations. This is a global pandemic, and it needs global solutions.

We are entering unprecedented times. The last major global outbreak like this, during the 1918 Flu pandemic, took place in a very different context, where the world was still much less interconnected than today. A global population approaching 8 billion, with people living closer together, with far more efficient road, rail, and air transport systems, working jobs that often require international collaboration, has never before had to deal with something as severe as COVID-19.

Unfortunately, the best treatment for COVID-19 appears to be self-isolation. This may slow the spread of the virus, but in the process of protecting ourselves we must continue to (figuratively!) embrace our humanity and think of others. There is no Noah’s Ark to save just some of us from the flood. Nor, do I believe, should we wish for that. Together, we are more intelligent, more resilient, and more powerful than this virus.

Listen to advice, do what you can to help, be kind, reach out to those who are isolated and vulnerable, and stay safe.

Find out how you can help during these difficult times here:

https://staythefuckhome.com/

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/elderly-coronavirus-how-help-older-vulnerable-people-supermarket-shopping/

https://www.thecut.com/2020/03/dont-spread-coronavirus-misinformation.html