According to the recently published Cost
of Doing Nothing report from IFRC, the approximately 108 million people
worldwide requiring humanitarian assistance as a result of climate-related
hazards annually could rise to 200 million by 2050, assuming there is no global
drive towards climate adaptation. This would take the annual humanitarian cost of disasters –
not including long-term recovery or private sector impact – to $20 billion. As
the latest ALNAP
State of the Humanitarian System report demonstrates, current record levels
of investment in the humanitarian sector are still outmatched by unprecedented
levels of global need. The humanitarian system is already stretched far beyond
its limits, and further investment in response and recovery activity will be
outstripped by the exponentially rising cost of damages as a result of a more
unpredictable climate.
More frequent and more extreme storms, droughts,
wildfires, and increasing water scarcity will lead to unprecedented levels of
human displacement and suffering.
The cost of doing nothing to tackle climate risk is simply
too high.
But this is not to say that there is no hope. Rather, IFRC’s
report is a call for more sensible action in response to the climate crisis. Focusing
on recovery is inherently a reactionary activity. And, as Hurricane
Dorian has most recently demonstrated in the Bahamas, when nature gets to
land the first punch, it hits hard. We cannot afford to stand back and allow
our most vulnerable populations to be beaten and brutalised by the increasingly
frequent mega storms devastating coastal
communities on all
corners of the
globe.
The good news is, we do not have to stand back and wait for
the next big one. IFRC
estimates that for each $1 spent in prevention and mitigation activities,
$4 are saved in the recovery process. For 25% of the cost, you can also
dramatically reduce loss of life and protect livelihoods, enabling a faster
economic recovery post-disaster.
There are two forms of preparatory activity for
climate-related disasters: mitigation and adaptation.
Mitigation activities involve reducing global greenhouse gas
emissions and slowing environmental degradation, in attempts to limit humanity’s
impact on the planet. Movements such as the global climate strikes, extinction
rebellion, and UN-led awareness movements such as the recent
IPCC reports that gave us 12 years to avoid climate catastrophe, focus on
mitigation efforts. Cutting the use of fossil fuels, preventing deforestation,
limiting the use of harmful substances such as unrecyclable plastics, and lowering
meat consumption are all fundamentally important mitigation activities that can
serve to slow climate change and limit the impact of rising temperatures, which
are largely responsible for the increasingly precarious climate conditions.
However, even if we completely eradicated greenhouse gas emissions
and stopped our planet-changing activity tomorrow, the world would continue to
warm. The carbon already in the atmosphere acts
as a warming blanket over the Earth, and will continue to do so for decades to come. Several climate research organisations have
therefore claimed that at least 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming is now locked in, and whilst there
is debate around this, the consensus is that additional warming will occur.
And we can expect more storms, more droughts, and more extreme temperatures to
accompany that.
It is therefore necessary that we not just engage in
mitigation activities, but also focus on climate adaptation. As the IFRC Cost of Doing Nothing report demonstrates,
we will be unable to cope globally with the new climate reality by 2050 if we
do not start to adapt our infrastructure, livelihoods, and homes now. Resilience
must become a much greater focus of all of our lives. Weather will become more
unpredictable and more severe. Businesses, communities, and countries will find
themselves disrupted more often, and having to deal with greater consequences
of climate-related hazards. The Global Commission
on Adaptation argues that adapting to the new global climate requires a
revolution on three fronts: a revolution of understanding, by educating and
training all members of society to identify risks and to prepare against them;
a revolution in planning, to better prepare for disasters, to design
infrastructure and cities in ways that make them resilient, and to put response
action plans in place long before they are necessary; and a revolution in
finance, to mobilise the resources necessary to achieve this before it is too
late.
This means that the time for climate scientists, national
governments, and environmental activists to argue these points and to make
small changes to policy is over. This means we all must do what we can to increase
our resilience, within our homes, within our communities, within our
countries and across the globe. This requires me, you, and everyone we know to
start paying attention.
But, and this is important to stress, this is not simply a
dire warning of a future that sees us at the mercy of an angry and
out-of-control Mother Nature.
Indeed, the adaptations and mitigation efforts that are
required to protect vulnerable communities from climate-related hazards are not
just good, humanitarian interventions. They also represent a unique opportunity
for urban growth globally. As Urban Transitions highlight in their new report Climate
Emergency, Urban Opportunity, “A transition to zero-carbon cities
offers an immense opportunity to secure national economic prosperity and improve
quality of life while tackling the existential threat posed by climate change”
(p22).
A more climate-resilient world requires that we build
better, more sustainable infrastructure in all countries. It requires that we
enhance our disaster response and recovery plans, to ensure that the
humanitarian sector can achieve as much as possible with the resources they
have. It requires that we listen to indigenous groups, vulnerable populations, and
citizens of small island states most at-risk of natural hazards, to ensure
nobody is left behind. And it requires that we work cross-borders, because
natural hazards do not respect human-made boundaries. An effective climate risk
reduction plan necessitates that every person becomes more socially conscious,
less wasteful in their personal activities, more generous in their support for
those in need, and more aware of the potentially harmful policies and actions
of governments and global corporations.
We are all in this together. And, for the first time in
human history, we have the capacity to respond as one global entity to tackle
something that concerns everyone.
The issue is clear. The evidence is there. And the solutions
are within our reach.
It’s up to us.
Let’s turn the climate crisis into a global opportunity.
