The Cost of Doing Nothing - An Urgent Call for a Better World

According to the recently published Cost of Doing Nothing report from IFRC, the approximately 108 million people worldwide requiring humanitarian assistance as a result of climate-related hazards annually could rise to 200 million by 2050, assuming there is no global drive towards climate adaptation. This would take the annual humanitarian cost of disasters – not including long-term recovery or private sector impact – to $20 billion. As the latest ALNAP State of the Humanitarian System report demonstrates, current record levels of investment in the humanitarian sector are still outmatched by unprecedented levels of global need. The humanitarian system is already stretched far beyond its limits, and further investment in response and recovery activity will be outstripped by the exponentially rising cost of damages as a result of a more unpredictable climate.

More frequent and more extreme storms, droughts, wildfires, and increasing water scarcity will lead to unprecedented levels of human displacement and suffering.

The cost of doing nothing to tackle climate risk is simply too high.

But this is not to say that there is no hope. Rather, IFRC’s report is a call for more sensible action in response to the climate crisis. Focusing on recovery is inherently a reactionary activity. And, as Hurricane Dorian has most recently demonstrated in the Bahamas, when nature gets to land the first punch, it hits hard. We cannot afford to stand back and allow our most vulnerable populations to be beaten and brutalised by the increasingly frequent mega storms devastating coastal communities on all corners of the globe.

The good news is, we do not have to stand back and wait for the next big one. IFRC estimates that for each $1 spent in prevention and mitigation activities, $4 are saved in the recovery process. For 25% of the cost, you can also dramatically reduce loss of life and protect livelihoods, enabling a faster economic recovery post-disaster.

There are two forms of preparatory activity for climate-related disasters: mitigation and adaptation.

Mitigation activities involve reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and slowing environmental degradation, in attempts to limit humanity’s impact on the planet. Movements such as the global climate strikes, extinction rebellion, and UN-led awareness movements such as the recent IPCC reports that gave us 12 years to avoid climate catastrophe, focus on mitigation efforts. Cutting the use of fossil fuels, preventing deforestation, limiting the use of harmful substances such as unrecyclable plastics, and lowering meat consumption are all fundamentally important mitigation activities that can serve to slow climate change and limit the impact of rising temperatures, which are largely responsible for the increasingly precarious climate conditions.

However, even if we completely eradicated greenhouse gas emissions and stopped our planet-changing activity tomorrow, the world would continue to warm. The carbon already in the atmosphere acts as a warming blanket over the Earth, and will continue to do so for decades to come. Several climate research organisations have therefore claimed that at least 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming is now locked in, and whilst there is debate around this, the consensus is that additional warming will occur. And we can expect more storms, more droughts, and more extreme temperatures to accompany that.

It is therefore necessary that we not just engage in mitigation activities, but also focus on climate adaptation. As the IFRC Cost of Doing Nothing report demonstrates, we will be unable to cope globally with the new climate reality by 2050 if we do not start to adapt our infrastructure, livelihoods, and homes now. Resilience must become a much greater focus of all of our lives. Weather will become more unpredictable and more severe. Businesses, communities, and countries will find themselves disrupted more often, and having to deal with greater consequences of climate-related hazards. The Global Commission on Adaptation argues that adapting to the new global climate requires a revolution on three fronts: a revolution of understanding, by educating and training all members of society to identify risks and to prepare against them; a revolution in planning, to better prepare for disasters, to design infrastructure and cities in ways that make them resilient, and to put response action plans in place long before they are necessary; and a revolution in finance, to mobilise the resources necessary to achieve this before it is too late.

This means that the time for climate scientists, national governments, and environmental activists to argue these points and to make small changes to policy is over. This means we all must do what we can to increase our resilience, within our homes, within our communities,  within our countries and across the globe. This requires me, you, and everyone we know to start paying attention.

But, and this is important to stress, this is not simply a dire warning of a future that sees us at the mercy of an angry and out-of-control Mother Nature.

Indeed, the adaptations and mitigation efforts that are required to protect vulnerable communities from climate-related hazards are not just good, humanitarian interventions. They also represent a unique opportunity for urban growth globally. As Urban Transitions highlight in their new report Climate Emergency, Urban Opportunity, “A transition to zero-carbon cities offers an immense opportunity to secure national economic prosperity and improve quality of life while tackling the existential threat posed by climate change” (p22).

A more climate-resilient world requires that we build better, more sustainable infrastructure in all countries. It requires that we enhance our disaster response and recovery plans, to ensure that the humanitarian sector can achieve as much as possible with the resources they have. It requires that we listen to indigenous groups, vulnerable populations, and citizens of small island states most at-risk of natural hazards, to ensure nobody is left behind. And it requires that we work cross-borders, because natural hazards do not respect human-made boundaries. An effective climate risk reduction plan necessitates that every person becomes more socially conscious, less wasteful in their personal activities, more generous in their support for those in need, and more aware of the potentially harmful policies and actions of governments and global corporations.

We are all in this together. And, for the first time in human history, we have the capacity to respond as one global entity to tackle something that concerns everyone.

The issue is clear. The evidence is there. And the solutions are within our reach.

It’s up to us.

Let’s turn the climate crisis into a global opportunity.