Weathering the storm? – Disaster Mitigation and Political Instability in Bangladesh

It has now been a year since a violent military crackdown in Rakhine state displaced over 1 million Rohingya people from Myanmar and left many in perilous circumstances across the border in Bangladesh. The mass influx of refugees into Cox’s Bazar and surrounding areas left humanitarian agencies deeply concerned about the potential chaos resulting from this year’s monsoon and cyclone seasons (something I detailed in this blog post). However, at a UNHCR press briefing on the 10^th August, the disaster-mitigation efforts of the first-responders in Bangladesh were praised, with the acknowledgement that many of the camps had weathered the storms despite 2018 being one of the heaviest monsoon seasons in recent years (the average rainfall for July is 600mm, but this year has seen over 1,000mm, with 463mm falling on the 25^th of July alone).

Despite the relative success of mitigation efforts, which undoubtedly prevented a far larger humanitarian crisis, the UNHCR briefing reported that “since 11 May, an estimated 49,000 refugees [have been] affected by adverse weather – more than 25,000 by strong winds and storms, over 15,000 have been affected by landslides, another 5,400 by flooding.” And life is not easy for those still living in the camps. Kutupalong, now the world’s largest refugee camp, has suffered from landslides in the wake of the overpowering monsoon rains, and the use of kerosene to light water-damaged firewood for cooking is having adverse health effects on many families. The World Food Programme and others are providing food to many in Kutupalong, but many more are forced to go hungry. The reaction of the humanitarian responders in Bangladesh has been exemplary and many lives have been saved but needs remain dire and great uncertainty remains over the heads of the Rohingya.

A recent trip to Myanmar from Bangladeshi foreign minister Mahmood Ali, in which he visited the conflict-ravaged Rakhine state, ended without a decision on the process for repatriation of refugees. Back in November Bangladesh and Myanmar nominally agreed to Rohingya repatriation, but the process has been delayed due to international concerns that it is not yet safe for the refugees to return home. Despite the assertions of many of the Rohingya that they do want not want to remain in Bangladesh and would prefer to go home, the threat that the Myanmar government poses to them is still a largely unaddressed concern. In a rare public appearance on the 8^th of August, Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of Myanmar and disgraced Nobel laureate, danced around the repatriation issue and made no clear promises that steps were being made to move the process forward.

Meanwhile, the political situation in Bangladesh appears to be rapidly deteriorating. On the 29^th July 2018 two schoolchildren were killed by a bus on the notoriously dangerous streets of Dhaka, the country’s capital, sparking protests over the lack of road safety laws in the country. Police responded to these protests with teargas and rubber bullets, and a crackdown on journalists reporting on the violence followed. This stifling of press freedoms and violent response to what was an otherwise peaceful protest is the latest move to have prompted suggestions that the country’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, is moving towards an authoritarian leadership.

Hasina, who has led the country since 2009, has progressively eroded press freedoms in a move that the BBC claims could threaten Bangladesh’s fragile democracy. The Rohingya crisis has widened political divisions in Bangladesh, with the pressure of the mass influx of people straining the country’s resources and threatening stability particularly in the disaster-affected regions around Cox’s Bazar. This turmoil has allowed Hasina to consolidate her power ostensibly as part of the crisis response, and the ramifications of this remain to be seen. What is sure is that Bangladesh appears to be drifting towards authoritarianism at a time of incredible uncertainty. As the international community condemns Aung San Suu Kyi for Myanmar’s military actions against the Rohingya, Hasina finds herself under pressure from India, who support Myanmar, to stay silent on the issue. Meanwhile, increasingly vocal factions in her opposition are calling for a condemnation of Myanmar and Suu Kyi, with some Islamist elements in Bangladesh threatening to wage Jihad against Myanmar if violence in Rakhine continues.

This context of rising political tension, stifling of press freedoms and the violent reaction to a peaceful protest from students all paint a very uncertain picture of the future of Bangladesh. The Rohingya influx has had a part to play in destabilising what was already a fragile democracy, and the failure of the Myanmar government and the international community to hold anybody to account for the ethnic cleansing that continues in Rakhine state means that the Rohingya remain isolated and displaced in an increasingly unstable region. The humanitarian response to prepare for the monsoon season has been a success, but the Rohingya people remain in a deeply fragile position.